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Intensified tropical cyclone activity in East Asia during the Maunder (solar) Minimum

Date: 2026-01-15

This study reconstructs a typhoon chronology for the Ming and Qing dynasties based on records of typhoon descriptions documented in Chinese historical sources. By merging these records with modern observations to establish a Northwestern Pacific typhoon database extending back to 1368. The source of the historical records was from the REACHES (Reconstructing East Asian Climate Historical Encoded Series), which was the first database in East Asia digitizing historical records for climate studies and open for all non-Chinese speaking researchers. The REACHES project was supported by multi-year funding from the Center for Sustainability Science of Academia Sinical and National Science and Technology Council since 2014, under the leadership of Academician Pao-Kuan Wang.

This present study systematically extracts typhoon-related information from the REACHES using precise linguistic analysis and validates the reconstruction by comparison with early instrumental observations. The analysis reveals pronounced centennial-scale and multidecadal variability in typhoon activity. Notably, the period with the highest typhoon frequency (1650–1680) coincides with the Maunder Minimum during the Little Ice Age. The team suggests this phenomenon likely linked to enhanced summer monsoons triggered by "cold land–warm ocean" thermal contrasts. This paper is jointly authored by Associate Professor Kuan-Hui Elaine Lin of National Taiwan Normal University, Assistant Professor Wan-Ling Tseng of National Taiwan University (soon moving to National Tsing Hua University), Academician Pao-Kuan Wang (Corresponding Research Fellow) and Research Fellow Huang-Hsiung Hsu (CEO of the Anthropogenic Climate Change Center) of the Research Center for Environmental Changes, among others. Published on December 22, 2025, it has been selected by PNAS as a featured article.

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