Home
- Lectures
- Institute of Sociology
- Location
8F, Room802, Institute of Sociology, South Wing, Humanities and Social Sciences Building, Academia Sinica
- Speaker Name
Kasei Dan (Professor, Faculty of International Studies, Hannan University; Visiting Scholar, Institute of Sociology, Academia Sinica)
- State
Definitive
- Url
2026-03-11 14:00 - 16:00
Abstract:
In recent years, amid the deepening structure of the so-called “New Cold War” between the United States and China, international attention to the possibility of a Taiwan contingency has significantly increased. This presentation examines how the prospect of a Taiwan contingency has been perceived and framed in Japan, drawing on media reports, official government documents, Diet deliberations, and public opinion surveys to provide an interim report on an ongoing research project.
The presenter has previously analyzed the World Bank—one of the core institutions of the Bretton Woods system—through the lens of the external influence hypothesis, focusing on how advocacy-oriented NGOs affect international institutions. Building on this international relations perspective, the present study extends the analytical scope to the formation of security perceptions within interstate relations. It considers not only Japan’s security policies, but also political leaders’ perceptions and changes in public opinion, including shifts in crisis awareness and attitudes toward Taiwan.
In Japan, discourse on a Taiwan contingency has undergone a gradual transformation. During the relatively stable post–Cold War period, Taiwan was largely framed as an indirect security concern. In the period following the Abe administration, however, the issue became increasingly explicit in political discourse and has recently been incorporated into national security strategy revisions and defense policy debates. This presentation traces the transition from institutional preparation to discursive explicitness and analyzes the accompanying transformation in perception structures.
Rather than treating a Taiwan contingency as a predetermined military situation, this study conceptualizes it as a policy issue formed through the interaction of changing international structures, the redefinition of the U.S.–Japan alliance, strategic recalibration toward China, and shifts in domestic political and public perceptions. It explores how the possibility of a Taiwan contingency is constructed and what implications this process holds for regional order and international society.
Bio:
Born in Yokohama, Japan, in 1970, Kasei Dan graduated from Yokohama City University in 1993 and received his Ph.D. from Yokohama National University in March 2001. Joining Hannan University in April 2001, he formerly served as a full-time lecturer and associate professor before becoming a professor in April 2009. He currently serves as a professor in the Faculty of International Studies and the Graduate School of Corporate Information at Hannan University. Since April 2025, he has been a Visiting Scholar at the Institute of Sociology, Academia Sinica. His areas of expertise include international relations, international cooperation, and international peace studies. His major publications include The World Bank and NGOs: The Influence of Advocacy NGOs in the Suspension of the Narmada Dam Project (translated by Chia-Ning Yao, Socio Publishing, 2014), among others.
Note:
Participation is limited to in-person attendees.
